Donald Trump has a uniquely Midwestern problem. If you closely look at the only states he hasn’t won, four out of five of them are Midwestern states. And I strongly suspect Ted Cruz won Alaska by tricking its residents into voting for a “Free Cruz” out of the state. So if you write-off Alaska as an outpost for fugitives, and consider it as it was always meant to be considered—as an outlier coalition of the criminally insane and desperate, unworthy of long consideration—then you could basically say that the only states Donald can’t win are Midwestern states.
Sure, Texas considers itself a Southern state, but it isn’t really. And Oklahoma might consider itself likewise, but it definitely isn’t. Then there’s Minn-e-so-tah which is upper Midwest to the bone. And then Iowa, and their residents take “Midwestern” as a bizarro compliment, and would probably blush with pride.
So what does it tell us that virtually all the state’s that haven’t gone for Trump come in border pairings like Oklahoma/Texas and Minnesota/Iowa? Well, it means something about the guy just doesn’t attract a strong Midwestern following, and means he may very well lose Kansas to Ted Cruz tomorrow, and Ohio to Kasich on the 15th. It also tells us that those states may give Republicans false hope of beating him since his losses are not just mostly Midwestern, but exclusively Midwestern. After all, he’s not behind in a single state poll for any upcoming state and likely will dominate the remaining Southern states, the April Northeastern states, and the June Western states if it comes to it.]
It’s why I should have listened to my gut right before the Iowa Caucus saying that they would never go for a guy like Trump, who barely even seems to own a pair of sweatpants. What is behind the cultural disconnect? I think it’s two things: 1. To me, the Midwest is actually more conservative than the Southeast in many ways, and polls have shown that Trump’s followers are typically less conservative than your hardcore Republican voter. 2. The Midwest is just kind-of a depressing and passive-aggressive place, and Trump–in all his vain-glorious flash and rage–is much more vibrant and aggressive-aggressive.
The styles just don’t go together, like Donald Trump and good taste. They prefer their fascism folksy, needling, and coded in faux-sincerity (paging Ted Cruz), and Trump’s macho bluster is in technicolor. At the most recent debate, when Trump bragged about his dick size, I bet they needed more than a couple of fainting couches in Nebraska, and that’s fine. Trump may lose the Midwest, but he’ll win everywhere else.