Tag Archives: South Carolina Primary

It’s Not Kasich or Bush That’s Holding Rubio Back, It’s TED CRUZ

The biggest problem in forecasting races is that political pundits think voters are paying attention to the same things they are. They assume an electorate is more focused on individual issues or any real issues than individual (physical) traits or personalities. They leave out the “science” that voters gravitate towards candidates that remind them of themselves, regardless… Read More »

Jeb Bush Really Was Like His Dad: A Man Out of Sync with His Era

South Carolina brought another casualty in the 2016 Presidential race: Jeb Bush. It’s also possibly the last one we’ll see for a while, since Rubio and Kasich both believe they should be the anti-Trump nominee, Ted Cruz’s dirty tricks will grow worse, and Ben Carson is adamant that he’s staying in the race…for some reason.… Read More »

Is Thinking Black Leaders are Sell-Outs the Ultimate White Privilege?

In episode 9 of “A Year Long Conversation” we dissect the divisions in the progressive movement between age, gender, and particularly race. Because there’s a weird phenomenon out there: young, white progressives who have had relatively good lives seem to think that even black leaders are now part of “The Machine.” They seem to view themselves as more… Read More »

Another Day, Another Dem Debate (But No Dollars)

6:02–It took me a minute to find what channel PBS is. 6:03–It looks like a Bernie crowd, he got slightly more enthusiastic applause than she did. 6:06–Bernie’s opening speech is seemingly endless. He’s talked for several minutes straight. Might wear himself out by the end of this. He talked too long in his New Hampshire… Read More »

For GOP, South Carolina and New Hampshire Are Actually Great Predictors

For the Democrats, Iowa and New Hampshire are not always accurate and they don’t even usually pick the same winner. [It’s also been known to happen that the winner of neither goes on to win the nomination, just ask Bill Clinton.] Then South Carolina has gotten it right…about 66% of the time. Not exaclty a… Read More »

Could Trump Actually Be the Nominee? It’s Looking That Way…

Trump’s “stunning” win in New Hampshire (so says a media that thinks a months-long polling advantage is surprising) may be a bigger deal than it at first appears. “But Alabama Liberal, you just said Bernie’s win was no big deal?” That’s right, but that’s because the state is Bernie’s backyard, lilly-white, and he’s not polling well… Read More »

Hillary’s Campaign Isn’t In Trouble

This instance that her campaign is in trouble is a perception that the media is more desperate to create than a reality. Hillary fully expected to lose New Hampshire to Bernie. She as much as said so in last Wednesday’s Town Hall meeting and last Thursday’s debate. She spoke freely about the polling data and the Senator… Read More »

New Hampshire and Iowa are Not Only VERY White But Regional

Before the media gets too caught up pretending that New Hampshire and Iowa are great indicators of what the “folks out there” are thinking, it’s a little crazy to think that these two states weed out our presidential candidates when both of them put together don’t have the populations of New York (which isn’t voting… Read More »