A lot of people are wondering what the future of Russia is, and even asking me to pull out my crystal ball and prognosticate it a little bit. And I’ll admit that it is truly a great question.
And it largely hinges on the answer to a different question: “Do Russians like being China’s bitch?”
It’s been obvious for some time (and I’ve written articles saying this long before the Ukrainian invasion) that: 1. Vladimir Putin doesn’t really give a damn about his country or the citizens currently living in it, 2. most Russians would be vastly better off if they stopped pretending they don’t have more in common with “the West” than Asian dictatorships (Syria, North Korea, China), and 3. Putin is China’s bitch and will probably defect to there with his stolen billions before it’s all over with. This is if the Russian people aren’t smart enough to kill him first.
Right now, Russian officials are practically begging China to loan them weapons and cash. [The U.S. has warned China against helping Russia too much.] They’ve already been forced to offload raw materials to China at a discount—raw materials being the only thing Putin’s economy really produces since they’re too kleptocratic and would ruin real, complex businesses. [One of the many reasons Russians with passports prefer to go to Europe or the U.S. to start their businesses.]
This is a great position for China to be in, but not such a great one for Russia or its citizens. Of course, that’s been the case for much of Putin’s tenure. Just like in 2016, when maybe China and Russia both wanted Trump over Hillary, but Xi Jinping hung back and let Russia do all the dirty work—because Putin is his bitch—and then it was Russia that was hit with the blowback and International scorn.
Under Putin, it has been Russia that’s been kicked out of the G7/G8; it’s been Russia that’s become a pariah on the world stage for cyberattacks (like the crippling one in Estonia) or human rights disasters everywhere from Syria to poisoning dissidents in Europe; it’s been Russia that’s been hit with economic sanctions while China just keeps printing money by making more and more American goods. China has been able to keep their hands clean and their money flowing, while Putin has systematically destroyed the world standing of Russia over the last 20 years. Now, he’ll be forced to offload raw materials at increasing discounts because China knows they don’t have another buyer, while the Russian economy collapses. Per usual, it’ll be average Russian citizens that suffer the most.
And the question remains: “How much of this shit will the Russian people take before they finally put a bullet in that Russian-betraying scumbag?” And when they do that, maybe they’ll become Germany or Japan, former U.S. enemies that now have thriving, robust economies and political stability. The sooner they cut the crap on hating “the West” (which is every other majority white and Christian nation on the planet) and stop pretending they have a lot in common with China, the better off the Russian people will be. I believe most Russian people are already there, and it’s only that they’re being led by this Cold War dinosaur who is lost in the past.