Unlike The Oscars, which have almost no surprises by the time the other five dozen movie awards shows have already come on, The Emmy awards are extremely hard to predict. That’s because the only other televised awards shows that deal with TV (The Golden Globes, and The SAG Awards) also deal with movies, and, therefore, pretty much treat TV as an afterthought on their way to…sigh…trying to shape the Oscar race. [Poor Emmy, always in Oscar’s shadow. Poor TV, always in the shadow of movies, even if the best TV shows today are actually better than the best movies of the year…and have been for a decade.] In fact, it’s hard to know if The Golden Globes even watch ANY of the nominations they come up with. [Last year, Kelsey Grammar won for Boss…almost exclusively because he was the biggest name in the category and many voters said they loved him in Frasier.] So, that being said, the Emmys are their own animal and it’s very hard to accurately predict them…so, of course, I’m going to try…
Best Drama Series
Who Probably Will Win: This one is almost impossible to predict. The nominees are Boardwalk Empire, Breaking Bad, Downton Abbey, Game of Thrones, Homeland, and Mad Men…In other words, The Emmys finally recognized that the Broadcast nets (CBS, ABC, Fox, NBC) suck and have embraced quality fully. You could make a case for why any one of these shows deserves to win, and why any of them (except Downton Abbey) reasonably could. Boardwalk Empire has its passionate fans and came off a shocking end to season 2…but has just as many voters who are bored to tears with it. Game of Thrones has done nothing but grow in the ratings…but Emmy has never really embraced the fantasy genre, and it’s a small miracle the show was even nominated. Breaking Bad had a phenomenal season 4 (which is what’s up for nomination here, not the first half of season 5)…but their season 3 was just as good and they still lost to Mad Men. Mad Men has won this award for the last four years…but that might inspire people to look elsewhere. And Homeland had a very good first season that people mistakenly think was a great first season and it’s coming back with a lot of buzz now that its second season is about to start…but well, is the show really enough for Emmy voters?
Who Will Win: It’s really a coin toss between Mad Men and Homeland, and it really all just depends on whether Emmy plays it safe or gives in to criticisms that they need to mix it up.
Who Should Win: Breaking Bad, hands down, no question. I enjoy all of these shows except for Downton Abbey and Mad Men is unquestionably the second best show on TV, but nothing tops Breaking Bad right now. For them to have not won this award yet is, pardon the pun, criminal.
Best Actress in a Drama
Who Will Win: Almost everyone would say that Homeland’s Claire Danes has this in the bag.
Who Should Win: Elisabeth Moss from Mad Men, Peggy’s strongest, most heartbreaking season yet and she’s never won before.
Best Actor in a Drama
Who Will Win: Again, we’re left with someone who has won four times before (Breaking Bad’s excellent Bryan Cranston), two that have never won despite multiple nominations (Mad Men’s Jon Hamm and Dexter’s Michael C. Hall), two you can forget about (Boardwalk Empire’s Steve Buscemi and Downton Abbey’s Hugh Bonneville), and a wild card (Damian Lewis from Homeland). If Michael C. Hall has never won before now, I think it’ll be almost impossible for him to win for Dexter’s borderline awful sixth season, and Lewis will probably have to settle for cheering for his co-star Danes. It’s really a two man race between AMC’s leading men, Cranston and Hamm.
Who Will Win: I’d give a slight edge to Hamm because people feel sorry for him having been nominated four times before and lost four times before.
Who Should Win: B-R-Y-A-N C-R-A-N-S-T-O-N. If he loses tonight, it’ll be a wrong-headed move of epic proportions. Hamm is smooth, but Cranston is really and truly giving the best performance on TV right now, and possibly ever. It’s one for the ages, and there’s no denying that Breaking Bad wouldn’t be half the show it is without it.
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Who Will Win: Some might say Downton Abbey’s Maggie Smith, but I think it’ll finally be Christina Hendricks from Mad Men’s time to shine.
Who Should Win: There’s no question that Hendricks is deserving and overdue, but, then again, so is Breaking Bad’s Anna Gunn.
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Who Will Win: You’ve got two from Downton Abbey that have zero shot, then Peter Dinklage who won last year (perhaps undeservingly), Jared Harris from Mad Men (and NOT John Slattery, who plays Roger Sterlin), and then, of course, the two guys from Breaking Bad…Aaron Paul and Giancarlo Esposito. Although they really risk vote splitting (the thought of them splitting enough votes that the award goes to Harris or Dinklage is a nightmare scenario) I still think and hope one of them can pull off a win. I think the more likely of the two is Aaron Paul.
Who Should Win: Esposito in a landslide, a man who played one of the best villains on TV with his chilling, oddly likable portrayal of deceptively mild-mannered meth lord Gus Fring, the perfect foil for the equally dangerous (and underestimated) Walter White. Paul is certainly deserving but has won before, and I think it’ll be a shame if Esposito is never shown proper Emmy love for his singularly terrific and terrifying “bad guy” (who may not have been as bad as the hero on this show).
The Comedy Side of things…
Who really cares about any of this? I don’t, so I’ll go through it more quickly…
Modern Family will probably sweep the Best Comedy, the Best Supporting Actress (Julie Bowen), and Best Supporting Actor (Ed O’Neil…who’s the only guy from this show to not have won before) categories, but does it deserve to? No. Best Comedy should go to, well, you really could make a case for any of the competition (Curb Your Enthusiasm, 30 Rock, Girls, and Veep) except for The Big Bang Theory. Best Supporting Actor in a comedy is fine going to O’Neil, but that’s because four of the six nominees are from Modern Family. And Best Supporting Actress actually has no truly great nominees and I wonder why the fine supporting ladies of Parks and Recreation and Community have been snubbed so often.
Then you’ve got Best Actor in a Comedy which will probably go to Jim Parsons (Big Bang Theory) again but really belongs to Louis C.K. or the by-now underrated Larry David. [Not to mention Alec Baldwin is still in fine form over on 30 Rock.] And the Best Actress in a Comedy award is going to Julia Louis-Dreyfuss (good) but probably should go to Amy Poehler (better).
Breaking Bad is the best show on Tv. When it started I thought, meth wtf? This show is never going to be good and catch on. When that plane went down and scattered all over his yard. OMG!!!!! You can’t not watch this show.