So yesterday Mitt Romney won New Hampshire in a landslide, surprising exactly no one except for maybe Jon Huntsman’s sons. And with him now winning both Iowa and New Hampshire, it now becomes almost impossible for another candidate to beat him, especially when the race for second place is all over the place (Santorum took it in Iowa but can’t go much further, Paul took it in New Hampshire but no one takes him seriously, we’re still waiting to see if Gingrich can win in South Carolina/Florida, Perry placed dead last in both Iowa and New Hampshire but somehow thinks South Carolina will save him, and Huntsman is hanging out with them, probably waiting until after Florida to drop out). Maybe if the race for second place was all on Gingrich, but it isn’t, and this field is now too scattershot—-with too many of them not wanting to drop out to allow the others a chance at breakaway success—-for anyone to have better odds of beating Romney than you or I might have at beating the casino’s slot machines. If right now it were a two man race between Romney and Gingrich, but it isn’t, and won’t ever be, and I’m thinking this thing will be over with by Valentine’s Day at the latest…much to the disappointment of breathless but lazy reporters who desperately want to stretch this “news” out so they don’t have to report about anything else going on in the world. [It’s so much more comforting to just report on a horse race than it is to actually go out and uncover news and try to explain something complicated.]
Anyway, with Romney all but assured the nomination it struck me as yet another sign that the Republican Party is saying they don’t really care about that hallowed “Youth Vote.” You’ve heard of the “Youth Vote” before. In 2004, it was supposed to sweep John Kerry into the White House against a weakened incumbent Bush, but didn’t because young people just didn’t show up. Then in 2008, it did sweep Obama into The White House…even though he would have been there anyway based on a dozen other groups propelling him over the top to beat McCain in the biggest victory since Clinton beat old man Dole in ’96.
Yes, that much coveted but unreliable youth vote is something all candidates want, but few are willing to go out and chase at the expense of alienating the massive, always-reliable “Old Vote.” In fact, part of the reason the “Youth Vote” candidate usually loses in the primary and rarely makes it into the general election, is because young people almost never vote in primaries. Primaries are for political diehards and old people who want to get out of the nursing home for a day…and young guys like me, who make up about 1 percent of the total primary vote. And there’s a reason you won’t see the candidates Facebook presence really kick in until after the primaries.
Still, as unreliable as the “Youth Vote” is, I’m a little surprised the Republicans aren’t even going to attempt to go after it. In fairness to Mitt Romney, none of the Republican candidates (with their four square, old school attitudes) would really seem capable of captivating the Youth vote. And in a weird paradox, the oldest candidate in the race and who would be the oldest president ever if he won, 76 year old Ron Paul, is the only one on the Republican side that young people seem to like (while a relative whipper-snapper like 53 year old Rick Santorum has made last century topics like gay marriage his campaign’s sole purpose). So in a way 64-year-old Romney (yes, 64!) stands a better chance of capturing the youth vote than 68-year-old Newt Gingrich, but no one thinks it’s likely either will steal this block away from Obama.
And no one on the GOP side seemed to care about that last election either when they put “the kid” Obama (a teenager at only 46 then and 50 now) against Grandpa McCain, and McCain looked older in every possible way up on that stage against him. Not just older as in wiser, but the exact opposite: feeble, wandering, like he really didn’t give a shit about being president and didn’t understand a lot of what he was being asked. Now no one really expects this same kind-of grumpy attitude from robotron Romney and his unwavering peppiness. [Man, all his money sure can buy a lot of perkiness…I think when the going gets tough he just closes his eyes and imagines all his millions.]
Still, it makes me wonder if the GOP doesn’t seem to realize their own pattern in presidential elections and “The Youth Vote.” Bill Clinton managed to beat George H. W. Bush based almost solely on his strength with younger Americans, and then killed Bob Dole the extremelllllly old man they put against him in ’96. Then George W. Bush actually did pretty well with young people against Al gore, and “won” in a squeaker of an election with corrupt judge’s help. And then it wasn’t quite as close in 2004 when young people simply refused to support John Kerry in mass numbers because, you guessed it, he didn’t captivate the youth vote.
So I’m thinking that this often dismissed youth vote is actually more important than anyone on the Republican side realizes. [If nothing else, whoever gets the youth vote is a very good indicator of who has the energy in a campaign, who’s got the media buzz, who most people are talking about, and who they aren’t.] Come November, they might wished they’d picked Jon Huntsman. Or, heaven forbid, they might wish they cultivated politicians that could actually appeal to young people.