Of all the strange stories that came out of Super-Tuesday, one of the weirdest may be that the GOP seems to be planning to dump Rubio at the exact moment he could actually win some states. I keep seeing different variations of people “questioning” Rubio’s chances. [Uhhhh, you think?] And speculating that maybe they should start backing Ted Cruz as the only possible Trump killer.
Now I have to look at that and wonder: is the GOP trying to lose to Trump? Because backing Ted Cruz would pretty much do it. Why? Because it would prove that they not only don’t understand demographic or identity politics, it would mean they seemingly can’t read a calendar.
People kept saying “Well, the South was always supposed to be Trump’s firewall.” No, it was actually supposed to be Cruz’s. He was actually supposed to be winning these Deep-Fried states that Trump is cleaning up in, and his “big win” in Texas was supposed to be more than 50% (which would give him all the delegates rather than splitting them with Trump) only a few weeks ago. I’m not entirely surprised to see him win Oklahoma–and said as much in my predictions–a state that borders Texas, and I’m sure we’ll find out that there was some dirty trick situation in Alaska where his supporters told caucus goers to pick the free “Cruz/Cruise” out of the state. But the bottom-line remains that the states that are most favorable to Cruz have already voted.
Even if manages to win Nebraska or Kansas, his campaign is pretty much over by mid-March. The remaining calendar is full of states Cruz will get clobbered in: Michigan, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, etc. And April is even more horrendous: Rhode Island, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and especially New York. Remember, Ted Cruz is Mr. “New York Values,” and it’s kind-of hard to see the biggest state in April going for a guy who has repeatedly insulted them. Although none of the states I just mentioned are off-limits for Rubio or Kasich, they certainly would be for Cruz.
All of which is making me wonder if the GOP has suddenly forgotten the laws of time, math, or the ancient ritual of “reading a calendar.” By looking at the states that have yet to vote, Cruz is their worst option to face Trump. [Not to mention that the only reason people like Kasich and Rubio is because they seem more tolerable than Trump, people can’t say that about Ted Cruz.] And by even floating that possibility in the run-up to Florida and Ohio, they may be killing Rubio and Kasich, thus eliminating their only actual options left.