In an article written a few days ago, I said March 15th would definitively tell us who would win the primaries. People scoffed, and I’m not one to say “I told you so” but Alabama Liberal’s election predictions are usually better than the ones people are paying big money to get on other media outlets, so it’s hard not to enjoy this.
Still, there are the “election deniers” that are becoming as delusional as climate crisis hoaxers and Obama Birthers. These people might tell us that Ted Cruz can still win (fat chance), Bernie Sanders can stage a–you guessed it–“revolution” (no chance), or John Kasich can still take it (hahahahaha). None of that will happen, and where’s why…[Cracks knuckles]
Bernie Can’t Win…He would have to win an impossible 58% of the delegates that are left. Since the Democrats do all their states proportionally, it’s virtually impossible he’ll win every state that’s left by 58% of the vote. And this is all without taking into account those pesky super-delegates that don’t like him at all since he’s not a real Democrat. Now sure, his fans tell super-delegate conspiracy theories like they’re going out of style because, increasingly, they are now that it’s clear Bernie won’t be winning in pledged delegates either. Plus, Hillary has won the popular vote, and her momentum all but guarantees she’ll finish with it too. Not to mention she’s won all the purple states from Nevada and Iowa to the big three of Virginia, Ohio, and Florida. Mark March 15th down as the day she won the race, and the day Bernie officially became the new Ralph Nader by refusing to accept reality. His fans are only going to waste more money on a campaign to nowhere, and the ultimate irony is that Bernie now resembles a lot of the Wall Street/Ponzi Scheme fraudsters he hates.
Ted Cruz Can’t Win…This is the most debatable point, but Ted can’t win. Why? Because people hate him. No really, they do. They hate him in North Carolina (which he didn’t win), and Illinois (which he didn’t win), and possibly Missouri when they finally figure out who won. [How relieved is Missouri to be in the national news for a government breakdown that isn’t caused by a race-riot?] He’d have to win more than two/thirds of the delegates that are left, and that’s impossible. Why? Tonight Ted was shut-out in some states that should have been possible wins, and his path is only getting worse as he heads to New England states in April that won’t go for him. The guy did make a big deal of insulting “New York values” so I don’t think too many of their 95 delegates will be going his way.
John Kasich Can’t Win…Literally…It’s literally impossible for John Kasich to win the nomination in delegates. You need 1,237 and he has less than 150 with less than 1,100 left. Even if he won 100% of remaining delegates, he wouldn’t have enough. His refusal to quit this race will go from “hopeful” to “joke” in a few weeks. Once people realize that he’s not “in it to win it” so much as to be chosen in a deceitful, brokered convention, I think it’ll destroy his sham image as the “nice guy from O-hi-o” for good.
A Brokered Convention Can’t Win…Trump’s only opponent now is himself, as the real race is between whether he can get enough delegates to avoid a brokered convention. His message between now and the end of this never-ending primary should be all about the evils of a brokered convention where Washington “steals” an election away from the will of the people. He’s got to educate people on the impossibility of Cruz or Kasich winning any other way, which is not easy for Trump since he wants his fans as dumb as possible. Still, if he can properly highlight the math and play on Republican hatred of shady “washington backroom deals that subvert the will of the people” then the rest of this race should be a cake walk. Of course, it should be one anyway since New Jersey, New York, California, and a bunch of New England states are what’s left. Plus, Republicans have been historically likely to side with whoever they think the winner will be. They don’t really do long, drawn-out contests and especially ones with delegate-dead challengers like Cruz and Kasich.
In closing, it’s Trump and Clinton. You can kick. You can scream. You can hurl names on social media, and curse the evils of math and reality. They are the nominees. Get used to them. Get ready for them. Get over it.