Oscars: Who Will Win, Who Should Win, and Who Should Have Been Nominated

Although one never knows exactly which films and performances will win, I like my odds of predicting this a lot better than a sports game which is really a crap-shoot.

Best Supporting Actor…Who Will Win And Who Should Win: J.K. Simmons for “Whiplash” because who doesn’t love it when a 60-year-old character actor finally breaks through? His music teacher is so much more complex than a simple sadist, and that mix of sympathy and calculation is in every second of Simmons’ excellently controlled performance. Possible Upset: Edward Norton in “Birdman” and Ethan Hawke in “Boyhood” are both great (especially Hawke’s maturing father) but this is Simmons year. Who Shouldn’t Have Been Nominated: Robert Duvall for his nothing-special performance in “The Judge.” Who Should Have Been Nominated: Randall Park in “The Interview.” No I’m not kidding, his Kim Jong Un (manipulative, resentful, smooth, angry, and surprisingly sympathetic) is actually more three dimensional than the real thing. Also John Orcilla from “Metro Manila.” Certainty of Simmons: 80%

Best Supporting Actress…Who Will Win And Who Should Win: Patricia Arquette for “Boyhood” for some of the same reasons as Simmons (a long-time actress delivers a career-best performance) but also because she’s the real heart of the movie. Her final scene in the movie is impossible not to be moved by. Possible Upset: It would have to be a complete “Birdman” sweep for Emma Stone to win, and even then it’s a long shot. Who Shouldn’t Have Been Nominated: Meryl Streep for “Into the Woods.” Streep gets nominated for playing a singing witch in a sub-par musical? The Academy just can’t go one year without nominating her? Enough is enough. Who Should Have Been Nominated: Diana Bang in “The Interview,” Zoe Saldana in “Blood Ties,” and especially Jessica Chastain for either “A Most Violent Year” or “Interstellar.” I’m still not exactly sure how she got snubbed. Certainty of Arquette: 95% [The competition is very weak, and even if “Boyhood” is upset in other categories, I just don’t see people voting against it here.]

Best Actress…Who Will Win: Julianne Moore in “Still Alice” even though it’s the only film in this category that I haven’t seen so I can’t vouch for it myself, but the competition isn’t strong and people are looking to finally honor the excellent Moore who’s been nominated four times but never won before. Possible Upset: Some people say Reese Witherspoon in “Wild” and some say Felicity Jones in “Theory of Everything” but those feel like distant seconds. Who Shouldn’t Have Been Nominated: I really think Rosamund Pike was miscast as Amy in “Gone Girl” (just based off the character image I formed from the book) and Felicity Jones was okay in “Theory of Everything” but not terrific. Who Should Have Been Nominated: Man, this was a weak year for lead actress contenders, because not one of my top thirty films of 2014 had a lead actress performance in it, but I guess Jenny Slate in “Obvious Child” and Gugu Raw in “Belle” were worth considering. Certainty of Moore: 95%

Best Actor…Who Will Win: This is the closest race by far in the acting categories, and it’s between Michael Keaton for “Birdman” (yay!) and Eddie Redmayne in “The Theory of Everything” (boo). I say Keaton but that’s mostly because I want him to win so much. Who Should Win: Keaton or Steve Carell for his revelatory performance in “Foxcatcher.” Possible Upset: Eddie Redmayne is (inexplicably) a very real threat to Keaton. Who Shouldn’t Have Been Nominated: I truly believe Redmayne is by far the weakest performance in the five nominated, and even though Bradley Cooper and Benedict Cumberpatch do solid work in their films I would have nominated…Who Should Have Been Nominated: Many have pointed out David Oyelowo’s snub for “Selma” but there’s also Jake Gyllenhaal in “Nightcrawler,” Miles Teller in “Whiplash,” Ellar Coltrane in “Boyhood” and even Channing Tatum for his brooding work in “Foxcatcher.” Certainty of Keaton: 55% …as you can see, I’m not entirely confident he’ll win out over Redmayne.

Best Director…Who Will Win: This is really a two-man race between the director of “Birdman” and the director of “Boyhood” and I think whichever of those two films loses this will probably win Best Picture. So it’s really a coin toss but I’m going to see say Richard Linklater for “Boyhood.” Who Should Win: Linklater, more than any other film, this is a director’s vision…and perhaps more so than any other film ever made. Possible Upset: It says something about just how popular “Birdman” is that its director is a real threat to Linklater even though “Boyhood” literally didn’t know how it would end up when filming started so its director was more crucial than any in history. Who Shouldn’t Have Been Nominated: “The Imitation Game” is not really a triumph of directing unlike any other film in this category. “Foxcatcher,” “Grand Budapest Hotel,” “Birdman,” and “Boyhood” all feel like distinctly cinematic visions from their auteurs. Who Should Have Been Nominated: Not Selma’s Ava DuVernay despite the controversy because that script-driven film really isn’t a triumph of directing or a truly auteur shaped film. Christopher Nolan’s “Interstellar,” Bong Joon-Ho’s “Snowpiercer,” and Damien Chazelle’s “Whiplash” were all much more distinct films clearly shaped by their director. Certainty of Linklater: 55%…again, not totally confident.

Best Picture…Who Will Win: It’s a tight, tight, very tight race between “Boyhood” and “Birdman” and it’s really a coin toss. The momentum seems to be with “Birdman” (and you can never underplay the navel-gazing aspect of a film about the business being voted on by people in the business) but I really think “Boyhood” is the more deserving and timeless film. Who Should Win: “Birdman” is great and absolutely the second best film of the year (tied with “Whiplash”), but “Boyhood” is one of the best films of any year. It’s one of those movies people will watch in film school thirty years from now. Who Shouldn’t Have Been Nominated: In case you can’t tell, I’m not much a fan of “Theory of Everything” and we could debate the merits of “American Sniper” or “The Imitation Game” or even “Selma” as well but they’re more deserving than “ToE.” Who Should Have Been Nominated: The Nominations were very strong this year, so I can’t complain too much but it would have been nice to see “Foxcatcher” slip in there along with a cerebral sci-fi film like “Interstellar” or “Snowpiercer.” Certainty of Birdman: 50%…I really hope “Boyhood” wins, but if I were forced to bet money, I’d probably put it on Birdman by a nose.

Quick Hits

Best Documentary: “CitizenFour” though “Virunga” is much more deserving than what is, essentially, a Blair Witch Project for conspiracy nuts. [Some of the threat of danger in the film feels very artificial.]

Best Editing: “Boyhood,” because how can you not have a film with 12 years of footage win best editing?

Best Foreign Film: People keep saying “Ida,” but I hope not.

Best Animated Film: The Lego movie! Oh wait, it’s not nominated…so who cares who wins this category? I guess “Big Hero 6” but again, who cares? All of these put together aren’t as good as “The Lego Movie.”

Best Cinematography: “Birdman” because of those excellent tracking shots.

Best Sound Mixing: “Whiplash”

Best Sound Editing: Not 100 percent on this one, but this seems like the natural category for “American Sniper” to win.

Best Visual Effects: I don’t think “Interstellar” will win, but it deserves to so much that I can only hope “Captain America 2” and “Guardians of the Galaxy” split the Marvel vote and Christopher Nolan’s infinitely more accomplished effects take it.

Best Adapted Screenplay: I think “The Imitation Game” will win but “Whiplash” deserves to win.

Best Original Screenplay: Damn, this is a great category, I could make a case that really any of these movies deserves to win. It seems like “Grand Budapest Hotel” has the odds in its favor, but if either “Birdman” or “Boyhood” wins this category, it may mean broader support for the eventual Best Picture winner.