Interviews with the Invisible: The Alabama Political Analyst

Today I sit down with former interview guest (“The Pollster”), the great Jeffrey Ioimo, our resident political analyst in Alabama. He’s here to help make sense of Alabama’s illegal immigration bill, the debt ceiling fiasco, the GOP presidential race, and what Obama can do to boost his sagging poll numbers, if you can make any sense of it. As always, politics are at the root of everything.

1. Thanks for coming back Jeff. It’s staggering how much has happened since the last time you were on, both locally and nationally. Let’s start out with the local situation. Alabama now has the toughest illegal immigration bill in the country, and many say it’s unconstitutional. How much of it is going to be thrown out in federal court? And was that the plan all along, to once again blame it on the “bad old big government” “trampling” on states rights?

Jeff: Not a problem Brody, thanks for having me. Quite a bit has gone on in the past couple months and sadly some important things haven’t received as much attention as they should have due to little things like the national debt crisis. The Alabama immigration law has pushed even further than that of the Arizona law and we have already seen major portions of that law thrown out in the courts. I don’t expect much of this bill to withstand the scrutiny of the courts and it is sad that it even passed through the legislature, but I think many on Goat Hill saw this as an easy way to say to their xenophobic constituents “hey we tried,” and then say those activist courts are inhibiting us from dealing with an issue the courts have refused to deal with.

2. My hometown of Albertville has 5 chicken plants and one of the largest illegal immigrant populations in the state. White people that make up the majority of the town are in love with this bill but don’t get how much it will hurt us economically. As our population shrinks–and it already has–we will lose federal funds, state funds, and city payroll, property, and sales tax. Not to mention the businesses that will leave with the harassed Mexican population (thus further taxes lost) and forget about bringing in new businesses to a town that’s lost a quarter of its population overnight. Then they’re trying to chase the chicken plants out of town but that’s bad for business too, losing jobs that start a domino effect. Why is it so hard to get people to see the truth on this?

Jeff: This may be one of the toughest questions I have ever been asked and when you find the answer let me know. Hahaha. I have some ideas but they don’t answer it completely. I think the most simplistic answer is this is the direct result of the decline in America’s ability to think critically. Deeper then this is the fact that it is easy for people to get side tracked with simplistic arguments like “they” are taking our jobs, or “they drain our system by getting government services without paying.” They don’t look at the fact that these people are paying into sales taxes when they buy something, they create business by going out to eat or doing other things in the community. I do believe that it is easier during tough economic times to get trapped in this mindset that these people are here illegally so they are causing the problems and taking jobs; instead, they should view these people as part of the economy and therefore creating jobs.

3. Recently, someone I know went to a grocery store that still employs grocery baggers that carry your food out to your car. An older man was the bagger and remarked on how he was glad business was slow because it meant Mexicans were leaving town. This guy gets paid in tips and he’s hoping business is slow…not to mention he’ll lose his very expendable job if business gets slow enough. Explain the common pattern of Southern voting where race seems to trump good business sense.

Jeff: I would think that the older gentleman would be glad that business was slow because it would be easier on his arthritic knees and besides something is telling me that the Mexicans he is so happy are leaving are probably not doing their grocery shopping at a store that still has bag boys that take your groceries to your car. The people that are probably not coming to the store are the local business owners that are seeing a decrease in business. I think voters tend to project their fears on things that they don’t understand and illegal immigrants (African Americans 40-50 years ago) who are outcasted and dehumanized are prime targets for peoples’ fears and economic frustrations to be taken out on. Politicians seeing this hype up the issues and play to these fears. As we have said before when talking it is easier to appeal to emotions and fears.

4. The biggest complaint I’ve heard from people that hate Mexicans in their town is that they don’t want their tax dollars going to an illegal immigrant who uses WIC or other forms of welfare at Wal-Mart (the most significant exposure a lot of white people have to the blooming Latino population), but they don’t seem to get that WIC is a federal program and it doesn’t really matter if people live in Albertville or Birmingham or Texas to use your federal dollars for it. People think their tax dollars literally go across town to someone they hate and if that person leaves they’ll get a tax cut. Is this kind of ignorance about taxes what led to the rise of the Tea Party?

Jeff: I believe it is the shear ignorance about government in general that led to the rise of the Tea Party. These are people that distort history to try and rationalize their political ideology, and when their policies are completely laid out the American people overwhelmingly disagree with them. Sadly, the Tea Party rose on this ignorance of government and fear of economic uncertainty. I think it is also important to note that the media has allowed the rise of the Tea Party by giving them so much attention and undue coverage. I do see some positive things when looking at the numbers. The Tea Party in an August 5th CNN poll only had a 31% favorability rating while in the same poll 47% had a favorable view of Democrats and 33% a favorable rating of Republicans. I believe the American people are starting to realize the ignorance of the Tea Party, which was on full display in the debt crisis..

5. I feel a very cynical political calculation behind this bill. I think GOP politicians–who put this bill forward almost single handedly–want to distract from their unpopular attacks on teachers and this bill plays on the worst impulses of Alabama voters to accomplish that. Also, if enough Hispanics move out of the state, it could undercut a potential block of Democrat voters. What’s your political take on this bill?

Jeff: It is no coincidence that such harsh bills towards illegal immigration and immigration in general have cropped up all over the country. In 2010, there was a big swing towards state legislatures being controlled by Republicans and the growing Hispanic population in America is viewed by Republicans as a direct threat and rightly so. The Hispanic population in America is the fast growing ethnicity and now numbers at fifty million. The big fact about this population is that the census data showed for the first time that American born Hispanics outpaced the growth of Hispanics moving here. Republicans are deathly afraid of this fact because Hispanics went for Obama by 67% to McCain’s 31% in the 2008 Presidential election according to Pew Research. This means that the Republicans need to find ways to disenfranchise this demographic by any means possible.

6. Speaking of politics, what’s your take on the debt ceiling fiasco? Was it strength or sabotage that led the Tea Party to stonewall on taxes?

Jeff: Ah, yes the debt ceiling fiasco! This was a complete political move on the part of the Tea Party that backfired on them while at the same time showing their true colors. The entire situation reminded me of that one little kid at someone else’s birthday party stamping their feet demanding to have it their way. The Tea Party is the minority fringe of a party that only controls the House, but they have thrown such a temper tantrum that people are forced to pay attention. I think the debt ceiling also showed the lack of spine by the majority of Republican leaders to stand up and refuse to allow the Tea Party to hijack the process. Many moderate and pragmatic Republicans agreed there was a need for moderate revenue increases, but the Tea Party instead of showing an ability to truly govern and produce compromise they showed how wedded they are to ideology. Furthermore, I think this shows there ignorance in government. They believe the only way is their way and compromise is seen as weakness, but the fact is democracy cannot function without compromise. It wouldn’t surprise me if creating the most dysfunctional government possible was part of their plan, this would reduce the confidence in government and therefore make it easier to cut government programs that conflict with their ideology.

7. It seems to me that the Republican strategy for making this country “better” is to make it worse so that Obama takes the blame for it. They know that a single executive like Obama is a much easier target for people’s anger than a disposable, anonymous roster of Tea Party freshmen, so they cause as much trouble for him as possible.

Jeff: Oh, yes I couldn’t agree more with you Brody. Over the past couple months, especially during the debt ceiling crisis I was amazed by what I was hearing from Republicans and talk shows. Republicans keep saying that President Obama didn’t come up with a plan that they all could agree with, but again the ignorance of how government works is shown. It was not the job of Obama to develop the plan as President but the drafting of such legislation should occur in the legislature. If they get on the TV enough saying “why didn’t Obama come up with a plan” more people will start seeing it a an inefficiency on Obama’s part. It is also much easier to direct a message criticizing one person then this nebulous of people, especially when considering the fact that more often than not people view their own member of congress positively while giving historically low approval ratings as we are seeing now for congress as a whole.

8. The Tea Party’s popularity is fading but an unfortunate amount of voters are fed up with “both” parties. My fear is that people don’t truly know who’s at fault in this credit downgrade and if Republicans start up a “new” “Liberty Party” in four years, people will vote them in. What’s the liberal counter strike against this? Should we formally declare a “Clean Water Party?”

Jeff: I think both Democrats and Republicans should be fearful of a third party in this current climate as voters look for answers, mainly to the economy, but I think it is important to note that as I mentioned before Democrats currently have a 47% favorability rating in a recent CNN poll while Republicans only have a 33% favorability rating. It is even more telling though to see that a recent Gallup poll gave Congress a job approval of only 13%. American’s aren’t as angry with one party over another as they are with the complete breakdown of our political institutions, which is exacerbated by fringe third parties like the Tea Party. If there was an off shoot party that could attract moderates from both sides I think there could be a strong third party but right now we only have the extreme element of one party in the Tea Party. As a Democrat, I think the Democrats need to get more aggressive with the Republicans and more specifically the Tea Party while trying to pull in moderates from the other side for compromises. I think a big part of it is to start putting out strong legislation that forces the Republicans to go on the record against things Americans’ truly believe in and force the Tea Party and Republicans the party of “no,” no policies and only capable of saying no.

9. Recently, there was a recall of six GOP senators in Wisconsin. Now only two were successfully recalled but that’s not bad for a recall election. Liberals typically don’t do well in special elections with low voter turnout (Alabama found that out the hard way in trying to get a lottery), so should we count even two recalled senators as some sort of victory?

Jeff: I think it is definitely a small victory for Democrats. Like you said, voter turnout is historically low for Democrats in special election scenarios, but the take away here is that six GOP senators had to defend their jobs. Enough people said that we at least need to take another look at whether or not these people deserve to be here, and the answer for two of them was no they don’t. I think it is also important to note that these people were not initially elected on labor issues and their stance to crush unions, and they did not hold on to their jobs because they crushed unions. If these elections were held closer to the initial fallout from the Wisconsin union busting I think they would have had different results. It also doesn’t help your odds that these were pretty Republican districts as well.

10. Most of those counties in the recall are heavily Republican counties, and a couple haven’t had a Democrat senator since Grover Cleveland. Do you believe, as I do, that the recall effort should continue against Walker in 2013 since the entire state can vote and his popularity is in the toilet?

Jeff: I do believe the recall effort should keep moving forward. Even if the likelihood of it succeeding is extremely low with only Grey Davis of California in 2003 and Lynn J. Frazier of North Dakota in 1921. The recall historically is more successful on the local level, but I believe that this recall of Walker has the chance for success during a politically tumultuous time and considering the outrage that has been shown. If anything this will be a symbolic showing that the people are paying attention and willing to go after their job if they aren’t performing as expected.

11. Rick Perry entered the race yesterday, Tim Pawlenty dropped out, and Santorum, Cain, Gingrich, Huntsman, and Paul struggle to fight another day. What do you make of this parade of clowns?

Jeff: Hahahaha well they are all very humorous to watch and listen to and at times scary so I think “clowns” is a fitting description. I think that you have a couple different factions in the party vying for the majority support while Romney sort of sits on top as if he is untouchable. I feel sort of bad for Huntsman because if he was running maybe twenty years ago or so I think he would have had a shot, barring his religion, at getting the nomination. Paul has a large following of ardent supporters but can’t get anyone else to take him seriously, which is more than humorous to watch at times. Cain is trying to run so far to the right that only Tea Partiers can support him but the problem there is most of them are racist if they are willing to admit it or not. Any intelligence that I thought Gingrich had has now been erased, which is sad, because I thought he could have had a nice easy job and tried to bring somewhat of an intellectual voice to the Republican Party. I’m not too sure what to think about Santorum. Here is a man that was happy with finishing fourth in the Ames poll behind a man that felt his performance was a sign that he should drop out. What makes this group even worse is that any oxygen these people hoped to get has now been taken up by Perry entering the race.

12. If you had to predict a winner of the GOP primary tomorrow who would it be and who are you most afraid could beat Obama? What candidate–if any–would you support if there was no Democrat challenger?

Jeff: Oh wow, that is a bit difficult to predict. I think it is still too early to see the real impact of Perry in the race, but I think Perry’s entrance in the race ends up drawing from Bachmann as they battle for the Tea Party element because Perry has much stronger religious ties therefore pulling in the religious right. All of this is to say that Bachmann and Perry are far to the right and have a tendency to say off the wall things, which opens the door for the non-exciting Romney. Romney has the economic credentials but has to battle to prove his social credentials. Ultimately, his time as a moderate Republican I think hurts him, but in the end he will come out on top. Romney who has the ability to talk to the moderates of both sides of the aisle can be dangerous, especially with his strong economic credentials. The economy will still be the main issue come 2012 unless there are drastic changes, which I don’t see. Romney during this primary I think will be forced to move too far to the right and endorse policies that the majority of Americans will not like.

13. As it will shock exactly no one, Alabama voted in nearly a clean sweep of Republicans in 2010 to show exactly how much they hate Obama. Is this more racial politics in Alabama? And is there ANY kind of counter move we can make in 2012?

Jeff: While I think the Republicans in Alabama did a great job moving the legislative elections from being hinged on local and regional issues to national issues like healthcare and issues of that nature, I think Democrats in Alabama dug themselves into a hole. The Republicans in Alabama had been knocking on the door to take over the legislature for several of the past elections, and the Democrats did not do anything to help themselves by voting themselves a pay raise. This pay raise was an especially poignant issue with the current economic situation. Democrats also did not do a good job in ensuring the development of younger candidates on the local level that could move up into higher positions. It goes further than that though, Democrats needed to stay closer to the ground and fine tune how to communicate our policies, but instead we allowed Republicans to form the debate and we responded to it. To be competitive Democrats need to start focusing on local races right now. Start building the school board members, city council members, and county commissioners up and groom them to run for the state House and Senate. This allows candidates to build name identity and a closer personal relationship with their constituents. We also have to start going on the offensive but being smart in how we form our arguments. No issue is off the table for Democrats as long as their position is communicated by someone the people know and trust and it is done in a manner that the people can identify with.

14. Last time you were here we talked a bit about the Citizens United Supreme Court decision that allows corporations to donate unlimited campaign funds. The first election that ruling applied to brought us the Tea Party, what fresh hells await us in 2012?

Jeff: I think this is going to completely change the landscape of political campaigns. Republicans as a result of their takeovers of many state legislatures have been able to crush unions, which would be the main counter balance to corporations. This means corporations have no real check on them and with that they will spend unchecked and overwhelmingly on Republicans who push the interest of corporations over average citizens. I think this means individual contributions are going to be more important than ever before and strong grassroots campaigns will be essential.

15. A lot of people think Michele Bachmann is a joke candidate and there’s simply no way Republicans would be dumb enough to nominate her, but I’m not convinced. At one time or another, people said the same thing about Reagan and Bush Jr. What’s your take?

Jeff: I don’t think that it is an issue of whether or not Republicans are dumb enough to nominate Michele Bachmann. I think there is definitely a good potential that she could win the nomination. I think the biggest thing that stands in Bachmann’s way besides her mouth is Rick Perry. While Rick Perry can say some dumb things for sure I believe he has stronger Religious credentials and can talk the Tea Party line all while being the executive of his state and a white male, which voters tend to identify better with.

16. And finally, from a professional level, what’s the way to a win for the Democrats in our state and nationally? Can we retake the house even though the big money will be on the Republican side? And what should the president do to bolster his sagging numbers, what can he do?

Jeff: I think Democrats definitely can win, and I think the House is not out of reach, especially in politically volatile times as these, but it definitely will not be easy. Democrats need to be more aggressive and put Republicans on the defensive. By voting for the Ryan budget many Republicans have opened themselves up for attack. Americans do not take too kindly to people trying to dismantle institutions that they depend on and have been promised. I think Republicans as we have discussed bore the brunt of the debt ceiling crisis and they were seen as being immature obstructionists. These Republicans were elected to create jobs, instead we have seen little to no job growth, and Republicans only answer is to cut spending. This demand to cut spending without raising taxes on the rich does not resonate with the people who understand that they are bearing the brunt of these said cuts while the rich give nothing. If Democrats harp on the idea that Republicans are for the rich and do not have the interest of the average person in mind I think we can see successes. I also think that Obama needs to get more forceful and get back into campaign mode. American’s love Obama the candidate, he needs to blend the candidate into the executive.