How Obama Can Turn a Shitty Economy to His Advantage

If I’ve heard it once, I’ve heard it a million times (just depending on how much I watch Chris Matthews’s show): “The economy is Obama’s achilles heal.” “Unless Obama gets this economy under control, he’s toast.” “Republicans will hammer Obama on jobs and think that will be their ticket to a win in 2012.” “No president has ever been elected with this high an unemployment number.”

Yeah, you know what else no president has ever been elected with? Black skin (I know Obama is more caramel but you know what I mean). They’ve also never been elected with interracial parents, a Kenyan father, a Muslim father, a black wife, an African name, etc. You get the idea. The old “No president has ever…” just simply doesn’t apply to Obama. He’s as much a breath of originality as the presidents we’ve recently had weren’t (Southern Democrats or Republicans named Bush). And now he can break the rules about incumbent presidents and sour economies too…

First, Americans thinking about the ferociously bad economy and jobs or the lack of them could easily be played to an incumbent President’s advantage. Back in 2004, we were hit over the head with how “we couldn’t afford to let John Kerry” be president because “there were two wars going on.” Well, never mind that it was two wars that Bush started, “there’s a war going on damnit” and switching to someone new during that would wreck all the progress we had made. At least that was the rhetoric, and also the conventional thinking pundits have about the country being skittish to switch presidents during a long, major war.

Of course, wars are much more the responsibility of the president than the economy is, and the right president can end a war a lot faster than the wrong one, but the country doesn’t see it that way. They also need to start seeing the economy that way. If the Republicans nominate the wrong buffoon (an anti-gay culture warrior crusader like Perry or Gingrich) that clearly knows a lot more about being an evangelical than about the intricate workings of a global economy, it may be deemed too risky to change presidents while things are still so touch-and-go. The economic markets are mostly motivated by fear, and Obama could use some of that same politics of fear that Bush did to go the “You can’t afford to get rid of me” route. Just substitute the War on Terror for a War on Poverty and you’ve got a winner.

Second, Americans thinking about the ferociously bad economy and jobs or the lack of them could easily be played to an incumbent Democrat president’s advantage. Why? Because the Republicans are dead wrong about the economy, and independents are beginning to sense it. Republicans won’t shut up about cutting social program spending–otherwise known as people’s only income in an unemployment-rife economy–and cutting taxes for millionaires. Not exactly a populist message.

All of the Republican candidates except Romney have been adamant about what I call a “Zero Empathy” policy with the economically destitute. No one is playing to the impoverished masses, they’re playing to the people that laid off those masses so they could make more profit. This is a loser of a formula. Even Romney’s subtle attempts to play both sides (he said he won’t abolish Medicare or Social Security…wow, what a moderate) will backfire as most of America already sees a rich candidate. Let’s face it, if you were casting a movie about white collar criminals, you couldn’t find somebody better than Mitt Romney to play your lead villain.

Republicans are completely off message to really capitalize on an economically frustrated nation. The country is saying “Give us quality jobs with decent benefits!” And Republicans are saying “Absolutely…but the way to get them is to cut taxes for the guy who laid you off in the first place…and also, define ‘quality’ jobs. Plus, you’ll need to stop asking for benefits–Hey wait, where are you going?!”

It’s enough to make voters remember that this recession started before Obama was president, and will continue long afterward if we don’t elect the right person. Obama can encourage the country to “Stay the Course,” and I’m betting he’ll reap the benefits of it just as Bush did in 2004. And of course it doesn’t hurt that he actually is trying to help the country out (his “American Jobs Act” is a winner but Republicans won’t vote for it) and Republicans are actively trying to make the economy worse to hurt him. Another tone-deaf move from a party that can’t hear the populist music.