The Oscars–as anyone who’s watched television or seen a magazine cover recently knows–are exactly a week from right now. This looks to be one of the most boring shows of the last decade as two things from the past make a big comeback: Billy Crystal and silent films. It’s hard to look at the likely winners (and host who replaced Eddie Murphy) and not think the Oscars are playing it extremely safe this year by reliving a time when they were still young, but…here are the likely winners accompanied by who should win.
Best Picture (let’s get the big one out of the way, unlike the telecast which saves it for last)
Who Will Win: The Artist.
Nearest Competitor: The Help.
Who Should Win: Tree of Life
Reasons: Only The Help has a shadow of a chance at beating The Artist, as both Hugo and The Descendants have seen their support wane in recent months. Part of me still holds out hope The Descendants pulls off a miracle victory, but everything about this year’s Oscars–even the host–feels like they’re going for the past, and no nominee is more hopelessly irrelevant than The Artist. Still, if they were going with who SHOULD win, it’s Tree of Life hands-down, for being the riskiest, most boundary pushing, frustrating, and utterly moving experience I had at a theater last year.
Best Actor
Who Will Win: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Nearest Competitor: George Clooney, The Descendants
Who Should Win: A tie between George Clooney and Demian Bichir for his great work as an illegal immigrant struggling to keep his head afloat in A Better Life.
Reasons: It’s The Artist’s year and it will sweep the top three categories including this one. Still, does Dujardin deserve it for such a lightweight performance that is essentially just charming but not all that great? I don’t think so. I would like to see Clooney–who is the only hope for an upset in this category–beat him out, but I would really love to see Demian Bichir win for his subtle yet moving work in that underrated film. If you haven’t seen A Better Life, do so and thank me later.
Best Actress
Who Will Win: Viola Davis, The Help
Nearest Competitor: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Who Should Win: A tie between Viola Davis and Rooney Mara in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.
Reasons: It’s a knife-fight between the always formidable Meryl and her Doubt co-star Davis. But I think voters have really soured on Streep in The Iron Lady because, well, the film is bad (something not often important at the Oscars). In my opinion, The Help isn’t great either so this is a battle between two great actresses giving great performances in films that don’t really know what to do with them. Still, I think the Oscars will resist their long tradition of honoring white ladies and pat themselves on the back for the “progressive” choice of Viola Davis…as an invisible black maid from the 50’s. If it were coming down solely to whose film is best, I would give this prize to Mara (who is least likely to win) but I can definitely go along with Davis (who is most likely to win).
Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Nearest Competitor: Himself. It is not possible for him to lose this prize.
Who Should Win: Christopher Plummer, by default only
Reasons: This is the sorriest collection of Best Supporting Actor nominees in years. Although Plummer is great and deserves his nod, look at his competition: Nick Nolte for Warrior, a Mixed Martial Arts movie nobody likes? Kenneth Branaugh for My Week with Marilyn, a film that entirely belongs to Michelle Williams? Max Von Sydow, another nominee from a film nobody likes? Fucking Jonah Hill in Moneyball? I mean…Christopher Plummer won this the second they didn’t nominate Albert Brooks in Drive, which is still criminal. Although I think Plummer is good, Brooks is better. [And I still say Brad Pitt should have been nominated here for Tree of Life instead of in the lead category for Moneyball.]
Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Nearest Competitor: Probably Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids or Berenice Bejo for The Artist based solely off that film’s strong support.
Who Should Win: A tie between Octavia Spencer and Jessica Chastain, The Help.
The reasons: Spencer is a fellow Alabamian and Auburn grad so there’s no way I can root against her, but I was really impressed with Chastain’s body of work last year in The Help, Tree of Life, and Take Shelter. To me, she was probably nominated for the wrong supporting actress performance but oh well…
Best Director
Who Will Win: Michel Hazanwhogivesashithowyouspellhisname, a.k.a. French Douche from The Artist
Nearest Competitor: Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Who Should Win: Terrence Malik, Tree of Life
Reasons: It’s The Artist’s night and the rest of us are just watching it, but there’s a slim chance of a Scorsese upset as this is Hugo’s only shot to win anything but technical awards. Still, his odds would be much stronger if he hadn’t just won a few years ago for The Departed. But I cannot get over the criminality of allowing The Artist Dude to win over Alexander Payne (who’s never won this category despite so many excellent films), Woody Allen, Scorsese, and especially Terrence Malick. These are filmmaking legends and they’re going to lose to a guy that could wind up being the new Roberto Benini (you laugh but where is that Life is Beautiful star/director now?). Malick especially deserves this prize for his awesome work creating a singular, entire universe as he smashed together the story of a 1950’s family with the creation of the cosmos and the afterlife.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: The Descendants, Alexander Payne
Nearest Competitor: Moneyball, Aaron Sorkin
Who Should Win: The Descendants
Reasons: I’m actually a fan of all five nominees in this race, and would be totally fine if Hugo, Ides of March, or Moneyball did manage an upset (which is always possible) but I think it would be a shame if The Descendants left tonight without a single prize, and since I’m betting the Academy will think the same thing, they’ll probably let it win this one.
Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: Midnight in Paris, Woody Allen
Nearest Competitor: The Artist, Same Guy Who Directed It
Who Should Win: Margin Call, J.C. Chandor although that’s largely because I haven’t seen The Separation and don’t like the other nominees.
Reasons: Although there’s always a chance of a Bridesmaids upset, this is largely a dogfight between two guys either from Paris or setting their movies there. I think they’ll “give it” to Allen for the same reasons they give the Adapted Screenplay to The Descendants and because The Artist will win plenty without this one.
Best Documentary: Paradise Lost 3, will win and I’m good with that.
Best Foreign Film: A Separation, will win and I’m good with that.
Best Animated Film: Rango, will win and I’m fine with that. [Even if I might have split my vote between it and Kung Fu Panda 2.]
Best Editing: The Artist will win and I’m NOT fine with that as The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo should definitely win this prize no ifs, ands, or buts about.
Best Cinematography: Tree of Life and I’m doing cartwheels about it as this could be the only prize this movie wins tonight.
There are other Oscar categories (expect Hugo to dominate the technical ones with occasional competition from The Artist), but does anyone really pay attention to them?