I’m about two weeks late with this one as some of the new Fall shows (roughly a third) have already premiered. Oh well, but it does mean I probably won’t go as in-depth as I might have…
NBC…Poor NBC, it’s been dead last for years and I don’t see that changing much this year. The thing with them is that their shows are so low-rated that anything can look better here that it might on CBS. Also, nearly all of their new shows are comedies and (as Whitney showed last year) you have to be really, really awful for NBC to cancel you as a comedy. Networks like comedies because they can slide them around the schedule without risking much.
Animal Practice…Odds of a Full Season: 12-to-1. NBC won’t cancel this too quickly (it has to save face against all the people that said it was a horrible idea to even have this show) but if it makes it all the way to May, I’d be surprised. Odds of a Second Season: 20-to-1.
Go On…Odds of a Full Season: 3-to-1. This new Matthew Perry show has done pretty well in the ratings so far, and out of all their new comedies, this is the one they’ll show the most patience with…possibly even moving it to Thursdays (Perry’s old home) if it really starts struggling. Odds of a Second Season: 7-to-1, I’d say this is really hard to predict because NBC gives comedies a lot of chances (again, Whitney but also Up All Night) and will want to bring back ANY performer that’s getting the modest ratings this one is.
Guys with Kids…Odds of a Full Season: 15-to-1. This show really, really sucks. They won’t cut it immediately because NBC wants to placate Jimmy Fallon (who produced this), but I don’t see any way it sticks around until May. Odds of a Second Season: 20-to-1, but if it makes it all the way until May, a second season seems likely.
The New Normal…Odds of a Full Season: 10-to-1. Impossible to predict, and one of the season’s biggest wildcards. I think the fact that an Utah affiliate refuses to air it is baaaad, and it won’t get the ratings that even Go On does. NBC will show it patience (because it’s from a mega-star creator, Glee’s Ryan Murphy) but I don’t know if it can coast on that all the way to May. Odds of a Second Season: 12-to-1. BUT, if it can get to May, it wouldn’t surprise me to see it get a second season.
Chicago Fire…Odds of a Full Season: 20-to-1. Odds of a Second Season: hahahaha
Revolution…Odds of a Full Season: Even. This show was so huge in its first week, it doesn’t matter if it loses half of its audience this week. NBC is so desperate for a hit, it will show this one tremendous patience (like they did with Heroes a couple years back). Odds of a Second Season: 5-to-1. Revolution WILL get a second season if they can hang onto even half of their ratings so far, if they can’t…probably not then.
Fox…is aggressively courting female viewers this year, so we’ll see how well that strategy works…
Mob Doctor…Odds of a Full Season: 30-to-1. Odds of a Second Season: No, just…no.
Ben and Kate…Odds of a Full Season: 10-to-1. Fox is very committed to their new all comedy Tuesdays, so I picture them showing patience with this one, BUT not quite making it to a full season. Odds of a Second Season: 15-to-1…doubtful this show can make a real run of it.
The Mindy Project…Odds of a Full Season: 4-to-1. If any of Fox’s Fall shows makes it, it’ll be this one. Odds of a Second Season: 7-to-1. This and New Girl go so well together, if this has ANY kind of ratings, I think it’ll come back.
CW…Who really cares about the CW? I don’t. That being said, the way they operate is different than the other networks (they order only as many shows as they need, no extras, so it takes quite a while to replace a show that’s not working) so any of their shows stand a much better chance of surviving the year.
Beauty and the Beast…Odds of a Full Season: 6-to-1. I think they’ve probably got high enough hopes for this show that they’ll be unlikely to give up on it before the first season is over. Odds of a Second Season: 10-to-1. That being said, I really can’t see this being more than a curiosity and surviving for a long time. You never know with the CW though, and it could become a cult item.
Emily Owens M.D…Odds of a Full Season: 5-to-1. It really fits the young demographic they rely on, even if it bombs in the ratings, it can’t do much worse than the rest of their lineup. Odds of a Second Season: 7-to-1. Everyone says this show isn’t very good, but it’s kind-of similar to Hart of Dixie and that survived on the CW for two years.
Arrow…Odds of a Full Season: 2-to-1. It would take a miracle for this show to get cancelled before twenty episodes. This is their big hope for the Fall and I don’t see it going anywhere. Odds of a Second Season: 5-to-1. If this thing does any kind of business, expect to see it back next year, where it will finally replace Supernatural as their resident “guy-skewing” show.
CBS…This is hands down the most successful network but also the most creatively boring. The shows that are big hits on this network aren’t shows I would ever make a habit of watching, and I don’t see that changing this year.
Made In Jersey…Odds of a Full Season: 30-to-1. A sure-thing cancellation and their least creatively promising show (isn’t the whole Jersey thing about two years too late?) but it’s on Friday nights, where it should survive until Christmas, but don’t look for it to make it all the way to May. Odds of a Second Season: 40-to-1. Even if this thing skates by on low expectations, it probably can’t skate to another season.
Partners…Odds of a Full Season: 20-to-1. Although this has a great time slot, CBS has high expectations for their Monday night comedies and I don’t see this raking in the type of ratings they expect. Of course, who knows? Since I don’t like any of CBS’s comedies, I can’t accurately judge what their viewers might like. Odds of a Second Season: 25-to-1.
Elementary…Odds of a Full Season: 3-to-1. This is their surest thing of the Fall. Sherlock Holmes + New York + CBS, the crime and punishment network=ratings sure thing, even if I couldn’t be less excited for it creatively. Odds of a Second Season: 6-to-1. Seems right up CBS’s alley, but I feel like it might not deliver the ratings excitement CBS is hoping for.
Vegas…Odds of a Full Season: 4-to-1. This seems like their most creatively promising new show, and also an all around good fit for the network. I can see them showing this one some patience. Odds of a Second Season: 6-to-1. All comes down to those ratings, but I have a good feeling. This seems like their “Person of Interest” this year, a solid procedural that can sustain an audience without doing anything too exciting or groundbreaking, ratings-wise.
ABC…Without question, this is the hardest one to predict. They have the most diverse lineup of new shows, and several of them are wildcards (The Neighbors) or would fit in better on a different network (The Last Resort). Either way, all of the shows I’m most looking forward to are on this channel, so risk DOES pay off. The buzziest and most exciting lineup of the Fall.
Malibu Country…Odds of a Full Season: 30-to-1. They can’t all be winners and this one certainly looks like the most typical (Reba McIntyre moves to Malibu, old school jokes ensue) and least memorable. Odds of a Second Season: 40-to-1. Last Man Standing got picked up for a second season largely because Tim Allen’s name was on it, but Reba isn’t such a big draw.
The Neighbors…Odds of a Full Season: 20-to-1. Last year, I was spectacularly wrong about Suburgatory’s chances of a full season (that was my most wrong pick), so I can’t say for certain this show will get cancelled before May, but…I feel like it’ll be a cold day in hell if this makes it to the Spring. Odds of a Second Season: 30-to-1. ABC only has so many slots on that great Wednesday night, and I can’t see them continuing a show that will probably be out of gas come May.
666 Park Avenue…Odds of a Full Season: 7-to-1. Only a fool bets against Terry O’Quinn and a supernatural soap opera seems like a great fit for ABC. Still, not exactly a sure thing, I mean, look at how Eastwick fared only two years ago, although it certainly helps that this show is on Sundays, another good fit for a decadent fantasy show (as Once Upon a Time proved last year). Odds of a Second Season: 10-to-1. Who really knows? A coin-toss…
The Last Resort…Odds of a Full Season: 15-to-1. Speaking of coin tosses, this is a huge one. I really, really hope this show can survive (the pilot is one of the strongest of the Fall), but the conventional wisdom is that ABC is the wrong network for such a guy-centric show. I hope that “wisdom” is wrong, but word is that ABC executives are internally pessimistic about its chances. Odds of a Second Season: 15-to-1. The only way this thing survives to May is if it is a massive hit in the 18-to-49 demo, and if that’s the case, expect to see it come back next year.
Nashville…Odds of a Full Season: 5-to-1. Most people seem to agree that this is ABC’s best chance for a massive Fall hit. I actually don’t think it’ll be as big as all that, but I would be surprised if it doesn’t do at least good-enough to get a full season. Odds of a Second Season: 8-to-1. It’s a great fit for ABC, and Grey’s Anatomy can’t last forever. They need a successor soap, and this is their best shot this year.