What I wrote then about NBC: “NBC starts the season off with the dubious distinction of last place besides the CW, and maybe not even that at the end of this season. So automatically their new shows have a better than average chance of getting a full season pickup, but about the same of getting a second season.” What I say now: Still true, and still in last place. Then…

“The Playboy Club: I’m not buying it fully. Everyone I’ve spoken to says they’re at least curious about this show but how curious? Five episodes? Ten? I see it being a curiosity more than a powerhouse ultimately. Odds of a full season, 8-to-1. Odds of a second season, 15-to-1” Verdict: I was flat-out wrong about a full season, because this was the first cancellation of the new season, but dead-on about there being no second season.

“Up All Night: This show’s “star power” should be enough to keep it on the air for an entire season. I can’t see something like this lasting many seasons though. I mean, eventually the kid’s gotta grow up and you can only get away with the gimmick once more for a second baby. Odds of a full season, 4-to-1. Odds of a second season, 7-to-1.” Verdict: Right on both counts.

“Free Agents: No. Odds of a full season, 20-to-1. Odds of a second season, non-existent.” Verdict: Dead on accurate, this was cancelled after a pathetic 3 episodes.

“Prime Suspect: The worst of both worlds. It’s a remake of a beloved cop show that most Americans have never heard of, meaning the faithful will gripe about a remake and the majority have no built-in loyalty to it. It shouldn’t even be a remake in all honesty and I just get a whiff of generic off of it that won’t let it stand out much. Odds of a full season, 10-to-1. Odds of a second season, 30-to-1.” Verdict: Dead-on again. You can’t go wrong betting against NBC.

“Whitney: Certainly has a great time slot, post-Office, but will almost certainly lose a lot of its lead-in. Still, Outsourced managed to last an entire season just by following The Office so I guess anything’s possible and NBC does favor a lot of chances for comedies over dramas. Odds of a full season, 4-to-1. Odds of a second season, 10-to-1” Verdict: Right on both counts, and it did get a second season.

Grimm: As I said earlier, NBC is stingy on chances for dramas, and this is a drama. I’m torn because I’m looking the second most forward to this show of any this season, but I don’t think it will last. I’ll split the difference and say…Odds of a full season, 10-to-1. Odds of a second season, 30-to-1. Verdict: Right about a full season, although wrong about no second season because it was granted one. Did much better than I or anyone else was thinking.

What I wrote about CBS: “New Shows, CBS: The polar opposite of NBC, this is the most successful network on TV and that means its new shows had better hit the ground running or they’re most likely gone. However, if they do last, they’ll probably make it to a second season.” What I Say Now: All still true.

“2 Broke Girls: I doubt it. This looks like the kind of show (centered around two young women) that isn’t really at home on CBS (centered around millions of grumpy old farts), so I don’t see it having much a chance even after the relatively “young” skewing How I Met Your Mother which is really an older skewing show pretending to be young. Odds of a full season, 10-to-1. Odds of a second season, 30-to-1.” Verdict: I was wrong. Just flat-out wrong.

“Unforgettable: I doubt it again and for a lot of the same reasons. Generic police procedurals with a “new” twist do well on CBS but this one is a little “girly” for their primary audience of older people afraid to leave their homes because a serial killer is outside. Odds of a full season, 15-to-1. Odds of a second season, 20-to-1. If this show can make it til May, it should get picked up.” Verdict: Wrong on a full season, which it did get, but right on a second season, which it did not get.

“Person of Interest: Looking forward to this one and everyone else I’ve talked to is to. It still might be a surprise flop but my hopes are high for this. Odds of a full season, 3-to-1. Odds of a second season, 4-to-1.” Verdict: Right on both counts.

“How to Be a Gentleman: I don’t have a clue really. I’ll take a guess and say no, but this is one I’m not certain on. Odds of a full season, 7-to-1. Odds of a second season, 15-to-1.” Verdict: Right on both counts.

“A Gifted Man: CBS owns Friday night and this looks like it could be a winner, but is the premise too “weird” for their core audience. The Hallmark-esque way it’s presented should soothe CBS’s audience. Odds of a full season, 5-to-1. Odds of a second season, 8-to-1. Patrick Wilson is a relative star and I don’t know why he’d want to be locked into multiple seasons.” Verdict: Right on both counts, made it to a full season but didn’t for a second AND Wilson said he didn’t even want a second season, so let’s add bonus points.

What I Said About CW: “Nobody cares about the CW but I’ll give it a shot anyway. I’m least confident about this network though.” What I Say Now: Well, nobody still cares about CW.

“The Ringer: I’m not convinced Sarah Michelle Gellar is the big draw others–including herself–think she is. I don’t know if Buffy’s tiny cult of fans are really chomping at the bit to see her in this or would follow her anywhere (it was Josh Whedon’s show and cult, not hers). Over and over again, TV thinks slapping a “star” people didn’t want to see in the movies is enough to get people to watch a TV show and that’s usually the first show cancelled of the season, The Ringer won’t be that but it won’t be the ratings powerhouse CW is expecting either. I think the CW will keep it on the air a full season but don’t see it going past that, as Gellar is really too old to mean much to the people still watching the CW. Odds of a full season, 5-to-1. Odds of a second season, 10-to-1.” Verdict: Damn, I love being right.

“Hart of Dixie: I don’t care about this show and no one I’ve talked to does either. The “star power” of Rachel Bilson could be enough to make it a sleeper hit but I seriously doubt it. Odds of a full season, 20-to-1. Odds of a second season, 30-to-1.” Verdict: Damn, I hate being wrong, and I was on both counts.

“Haters: This looks like the kind of novelty program that will do big ratings for about two months and quietly crawl into the woods to die. Odds of a full season, 15-to-1. Odds of a second season, 30-to-1.” Verdict: Dead-on for both.

“The Secret Circle: A gamble. On the one hand it’s got all the classic elements of a hit CW show: supernatural element, 30 year olds pretending to be high school kids, a title that makes it feel like you’re part of a high school clique for watching it. On the other hand…well, there is no other hand. This show could be a flop but I’m thinking this will be their surprise hit of the season. Odds of a full season, 5-to-1. Odds of a second season, 7-to-1.” Verdict: Right on a full season, slightly wrong on a second. There isn’t going to be one, but I sort-of didn’t put too strong odds on it.

What I Wrote About ABC: “Just like the CW, I’m clearly not the target for most of ABC’s new shows (women), so it’s hard to say with certainty, but I’ll give it a shot. I would say my predictions might be least accurate for this network and the CW.” What I Say Now: And just like my write-up (dis)claimed, I was least accurate for this network…by a mile.

Last Man Standing: This show should definitely be the lead OUT for Dancing with the Stars instead of the lead-in but I guess they’re hoping it attracts long dormant family audiences back to prime time. Once again, they’re hoping that just putting a “star” in any show will make it a hit but most comedy hits of the last few years feature big names in the SUPPORTING role (Ed O’Neil on Modern Family, Chevy Chase on Community, Alec Baldwin on 30 Rock) instead of lead. I think this could last a full season only because ABC can’t cancel ALL their new shows before May and this is the one they will probably show the most patience with. Odds of a full season, 6-to-1. Odds of a second season, 12-to-1. Verdict: Right on the full season, and sort-of right on the second season. I don’t say it won’t get one, I don’t say it will, so I’ll give myself half a point.

“Man Up!: ABC is not even trying with this one. It follows another show with “man” in the title as if to make it easy to confuse the two. Well, this is the one that does NOT have Tim Allen and won’t last 10 episodes. Odds of a full season, 20-to-1. Odds of a second season, 40-to-1.” Verdict: Absolutely right on both.

“Suburgatory: No. This tries to play up similarities to “edgy” shows like Modern Family but MF isn’t edgy, it merely pretends to be, and a lot of the suburbanites that go crazy for that show aren’t going to be thrilled with this show’s smugness. Odds of a full season, 20-to-1. Odds of a second season, non-existent.” Verdict: Absolutely wrong on both.

“Revenge: Probably would be a ratings bonanza on the CW but not on ABC, whose women viewers are a little older. It’s always smart money to bet AGAINST prime time soap operas and this is no exception. Odds of a full season, 20-to-1. Odds of a second season, 40-to-1.” Verdict: Even more wrong on this.

“Charlie’s Angels: Seriously, fuck this show. I can count the number of remakes of old TV shows that made it to a second season on one hand…no, one finger, and I’m giving this piece of shit the premature bird finger. Odds of a full season, 20-to-1. Odds of a second season, 40-to-1.” Verdict: However, I take consolation on this show dying a quick death.

“Once Upon a Time: Probably has a greater chance of success than “Grimm” at making adult fairytale magic but probably also worse in quality. Certainly benefits from weak competition but doesn’t benefit from a terrible time slot that will make it difficult for viewers to even know it’s on. I can see this one being a sleeper hit OR, more likely, falling through the cracks. Odds of a full season, 10-to-1. Odds of a second season, 25-to-1.” Verdict: Wrong, should have went with my gut that this would be a hit (read the write-up carefully) instead of what the “smart money” was saying.

“Pan Am: I don’t have a clue. I know ABC would like this to be a hit, but I’m not sure it will be. It’s just not easy for period shows to really draw in and keep an audience. Even Mad Men–which is one of the best shows on TV and a critical behemoth–draws an audience that would get it cancelled on any other network than AMC. Odds of a full season, 12-to-1. Odds of a second season, 20-to-1.” Verdict: Right.

What I Wrote About Fox: “Fox is that dangerous relative you have that comes up with the best ideas (Arrested Development, 24, Fringe, Brimstone, Harsh Realm, Action) and the worst ideas (cancelling most of those shows prematurely, The Swan, How to Marry a Millionaire). It’s a dicey, dicey network but I’m willing to give it a shot.” What I Say Now: They’re still the crazy uncle, just look at the way they treated Terra Nova when NBC would give their right arm to draw a ten million weekly audience.

“Terra Nova: The one I’m looking most forward to, along with everyone else. I have a feeling it will be another generic action show without really interesting sci-fi elements but I’m hoping the network behind The X-Files, Fringe, and Harsh Realm can make some sci-fi magic happen. Odds of a full season: even. The network has spent way too much money on each episode to let ANY of them go to waste. This is the closet to a sure thing for a full season pick-up as anything else. Odds of a second season, 3-to-1. Spielberg’s name means a lot but the show is so expensive it had better do fantastic ratings to warrant a second season pickup. I see big numbers initially but will they last?” Verdict: Right on the quality—-it was, too often a generic action show—-and the complete first season, halfway right on being skeptical about a renewal even if the numbers were good (they were, but apparently not good enough).

“New Girl: This is another one of those shows where they think a “star” (Zooey Deschanel) who can’t even open a movie and most of America couldn’t name will single-handedly draw people to a show that looks shitty. It might last a season behind Glee but I don’t see it going the distance, Fox always struggles with this type of show. Odds of a full season, 8-to-1. Odds of a second season, 20-to-1.” Verdict: Right on a full season, wrong on a second which it got.

“The X-Factor: What if you threw a huge party and nobody came? The “buzz” for this show is off-the-charts but everyone I talk to says “Why bother? They already have American Idol.” I think it will do well as talent show reality competitions have proven stubbornly resilient but I don’t think it will dominate the way Idol did back in the day. Odds of a full season, even. Odds of a second season, 3-to-1.” Verdict: 100 percent right. Full season, and second season, but nowhere near the dynamo they were expecting.

“I Hate My Teenage Daughter: Should definitely benefit from a post-Factor time slot, but who knows? All the shows about raising kids this Fall (Up All Night, Last Man Standing) might feel repetitive, and family comedies aren’t popular right now. Still, this has a current of anger behind it that might make it a sleeper hit. Assuming it rides a wave of ratings post-Factor, good first season but unlikely second. Odds of a full season, 6-to-1. Odds of a second season, 10-to-1.” Verdict: I guess I was right. They did seem to get a full season (they removed it and put it back so often it’s hard to tell) and definitely didn’t get a second.

“Allen Gregory: What the hell is an Allen Gregory? This show looks more cerebral than where Fox’s animation Sundays have been headed recently (the dumbass Family Guy, American Dad, and increasingly dumbed down Simpsons) so I can’t see it lasting long. Most likely, Fox’s first cancellation of the year. Odds of a full season, 15-to-1. Odds of a second season, 30-to-1.” Verdict: Absolutely right.

“So those are my odds for the Fall season, thank you to the five people that might have made it this far. I realize this list is long but hey, with 28 new shows that means it’s more likely Alabama Liberal messed up on several and you can come back any time and rub it in. This is the Superbowl betting for TV nerds, so feel free to save this list and use it to beat the casino (myself, the first casino in history without money).” What I say now: I still thank the two people that may read this, and plan to do the same thing for this Fall’s new shows in a couple months time. I scored about a 75 percent accuracy rate, which is damn better than most Entertainment writers that actually get paid to do this. Sorry to gloat, but when you run a site for free (that’s better than some that aren’t), you have to indulge in the occasional ego stroke when you can.