Note: I can usually predict about 4 out of 5 nominees and 2/3rds of winners, for whatever that’s worth in your Oscar betting pool. The rankings are how sure I am they’ll be nominated (so the 4th or 5th placers may very well not make the cut) and the top choice is who I think will win…
Best Actor: A surprisingly weak category this year as there’s really only 6 strong contenders and a couple of outside shots.
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea…He’ll definitely be nominated, and I think he’ll win it over Gosling in a squeaker. The only thing stopping him is that Affleck is not really a good Oscar campaigner (which wouldn’t have hurt Matt Damon–who must be kicking himself for dropping out of this film–at all).
2. Ryan Gosling, La La Land…Although if La La Land sweeps the awards, don’t be surprised if he wins.
3. Denzel Washington, Fences
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge…Although I really, really hope he’s not nominated, I think his performance here will serve as joint recognition for this film and “Silence.”
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving…Although there’s an unfortunately strong chance he could lose out to Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic) for this fifth slot, but I sure hope he doesn’t.
Most Likely Spoiler: Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic. Outside shot: Tom Hanks, Sully or Adam Driver, Paterson
Best Actress: A much more competitive category than Best Actor, which has become a trend in recent years…
1. Emma Stone, La La Land…I think she’ll just barely squeak by Natalie Portman in a genuinely close race
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie
This is where things get tougher as there are half-a-dozen women that could easily fill these last three slots.
3. Ruth Negga, Loving…And I’ll admit that this is mostly because I want her to be nominated so much.
4. Amy Adams, The Arrival
5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins…Her anti-Trump speech at the Golden Globes will be the thing that nominates her here, not that anyone actually likes this movie.
Most Likely Spoiler: Isabelle Huppert, Elle. Outside Shot: Annette Bening, 20th Century Women or Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane and possibly even Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train (but I really doubt it) in a battle of the redheads.
Best Supporting Actor: Toughest to predict of all the acting categories…
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight…Although I personally would love to see Jeff Bridges win this, and if Bridges wins the Screen Actor’s Guild Award then I think he’s the frontrunner.
2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water…And if wins the SAG, he may overtake Ali for the Oscar win.
3. Dev Patel, Lion
4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester By the Sea…It’s one of the most widely beloved movies of 2016 so I’m surprised his chances aren’t seen as a sure-thing.
5. Aaron Taylor-Johnson or Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals…Though Johnson won The Golden Globe, most critics singled out Shannon as the “Animals” stand-out. The vote-splitting may sink both their chances.
Supposed Most Likely Spoiler: Hugh Grant from “Florence Foster Jenkins” although Simon Helberg from that same film was nominated in this category at the Globes and I think vote-splitting will likely doom them both. Actual Most Likely Spoiler: Liam Neeson or Issey Ogata, “Silence” since the Oscars usually throw at least one “What the hell?” curveball into the supporting acting categories and my hunch says “Silence” will be the most likely to provide it. Very Outside Shot: Jonah Hill in “War Dogs” because the Academy has given Hill surprise nominations in this category before (“Wolf of Wall Street,” “Moneyball”).
Best Supporting Actress: The Golden Globes and Screen Actor’s Guild Awards nominated the exact same five nominees and most of the critics groups gave their awards to one of the five. It seems like the most boring category, but this is also the acting category that routinely has at least one shocker nominee…
1. Viola Davis, Fences…Will probably beat-out Naomie Harris, but if “Moonlight” wins other big categories (like screenplay) it’ll probably mean the overall love for the film is enough to push Harris through for the win.
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight…Although I personally would rather see Naomie win.
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
4. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures…Congratulations to a fellow Alabamian
5. Nicole Kidman, Lion…Seems like the most likely to lose a nomination in an upset, but to who? If competition were stronger, she’d be a gone goose.
Possible Spoilers: Greta Gerwig (“20th Century Women” or “Jackie”) or Lupita N’yongo (“Queen of Katwe”) are possible, but I’d love to see Margo Martindale (“The Hollars”) sneak in there.
Best Director: Honestly, who knows? There are three sure-things, but the last two spots could easily go to at least five contenders. The nominations for Directors Guild Awards will be announced tomorrow and it would be smarter for me to wait a day and see what they do, but why not risk it?
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land…Although he deserved a nomination for “Whiplash” two years back, he’ll definitely get one (and a probable win) this year.
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
This is where things get tricky, and it wouldn’t surprise me a bit if these last two slots go to directors whose films aren’t nominated…
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence…The Academy may reward his labor-of-love and the decades-long struggle to make this film with a token nomination here though the film may be snubbed in every other major category including Best Picture
5. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals…Although this is just a hail-mary guess really, and it’s doubtful the film itself will be nominated for Best Picture…
Most Likely Spoiler: Denzel Washington, Fences. Biggest Question: Is the Academy ready to forgive Mel Gibson and nominate him for the thoroughly overrated “Hacksaw Ridge?” My guess (and hope) is no. Possibles: David Mackenzie, “Hell or High Water” or Dennis Villeneuve, “The Arrival.”
Best Picture: The toughest major category to predict…by a mile. We don’t even know exactly how many nominees there will be (the rules specify it’ll be between 5 to 10), and there are at least a dozen films that could easily wind up here.
1. La La Land…Although “Manchester by the Sea” or “Moonlight” could win, recent-past Oscar history has shown favoring of inside-show-business movies (“Birdman,” “The Artist,” even “Argo”) over grittier movies about everyday people. If “Boyhood” couldn’t beat “Birdman,” it’s hard to see either of this year’s spoilers beating “La La Land” which is actually better than them.
2. Moonlight…The most likely film to beat “La La Land” but “Brokeback Mountain” didn’t win when it was universally expected to and there’s still lingering questions about Academy homophobia.
3. Manchester by the Sea…If Oscar voters are going for something a little more downbeat than “La La Land” it’s more likely they’ll pick “Moonlight” which is still not as depressing as “Manchester.”
4. Hell or High Water…Other predictors don’t rank this as high, but it’s a film that just-about everybody loves. Although it’s unlikely to win any of the major awards, it’s hard to see it not getting nominated here.
This is where things get really tricky, as any of ten films could reasonably take the last 1 to 6 slots. It’s kind-of like playing a double-lotto game here as you have to hit the number of nominees there will be (again, 5 to 10) and which of a dozen films could fill those slots.
5. Hacksaw Ridge…Although I really, really hope it’s not nominated.
6. Jackie
7. Loving…And I’ll fully acknowledge that this is because I want it to be nominated more than I think it probably will be.
8. Lion
9. Fences
10. Patriot’s Day or Silence…There’s usually one late-breaking film that sneaks onto the list, and I think these two (which opened in the last week of 2016) are the most likely contenders.
Most Likely Spoiler: There’s usually at least one big fat hit movie in the list and this year’s seems most likely to be “The Arrival” or “Sully.” Most are picking “The Arrival,” but the Academy has strongly avoided science-fiction in years past (including the superior “Interstellar”). And though that semi-changed with last year’s “The Martian,” I still think “Sully” is more likely. Contenders: To me, the only likely nominee not already mentioned is “Hidden Figures,” but other sites list at least another handful as strong.
End Note: We’ll see in a few weeks if my predictions are entirely bogus or not. Again, it’s virtually impossible I won’t get at least 3/5ths of the nominees right, but that Best Picture category will probably shock some people. Still, no nominations will be as shocking as the winner of the Presidential race, and I’m not sure what it’s saying when Hollywood is less unpredictable than the American electorate.