As I pointed out on Sunday, former Utah Governor and sanest man in the room, Jon Huntsman bowed out of the Presidential race after deciding it was all but impossible for him to win the nomination. His decision surprised exactly no one (except those like myself who wonder why he even entered the race in the first place) and now the question becomes “Why are the rest of them still there?” Once Mitt Romney snags South Carolina, this race is done about two years before it even started as Romney has been the front runner for the nomination since…well, really since he lost in ’08.
This race has all the drama of whether or not Meryl Streep will be nominated at the Oscars for any performance she gives or whether Tim Tebow will blow it in a big moment. Romney will win South Carolina and then certainly Florida and after that it will become officially impossible for anyone to beat him. It also doesn’t help that Huntsman is seemingly the only one who realizes this BUT he’s also the only one who took votes away from Romney, thus his exit only gives Romney even more votes while Gingrich, Santorum, and Perry fight over what’s left of South Carolina’s “Evangelical voters” (evangelical lately meaning “We won’t vote for Mormons or any Democrat”). So why are Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, and “The Other Rick” Santorum staying in this race…and why all of them so that none of them have a shot at beating Romney? [Is Rick Santorum hoping to stay in the race after everyone else so he can say he “Placed second” to Romney?]
In my opinion, both Ricks are clearly the weakest link in this field, and Perry and Santorum should drop out tomorrow and give Newt an actual shot at South Carolina, and a possible shot at Florida. Their failure to do so out of blatant narcissism and misguided ego (Perry has never lost a race and doesn’t want to now, Santorum can’t take “Hell no, not you!” for an answer) all but guarantees Romney won’t break a sweat until the general election heats up.
In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me a bit if Gingrich drops out of the race before anyone else, even if he’s perhaps the only halfway credible competitor that Romney has left. And that makes for a perfectly fitting dud ending to a snoozer of a primary. I mean, when the biggest question hanging over the primary is “Will Santorum run out of money before Florida?” you know this party needs a serious injection of buzz…and I’m not so sure Willard Robot-o-tron Romney is really going to be the man capable of it.
Just for shits and giggles let’s place bets on who drops out of the race next…
Rick Perry: 3-to-1. The Lone Star Governor hates losing, but he’ll place poorly in South Carolina, and he isn’t quite ready to embarrass himself like Ron Paul or Santorum. Plus, if he can’t place well in South Carolina, what hope does he really have of Florida? Still, he’s got the money to keep going and might want to let some of the others drop out first so as not to “look weak.” If it weren’t for his ego, I’d place better odds on this.
Newt Gingrich: 4-to-1. The most reasonable man of the pack that’s left. He’ll do pretty well in South Carolina, but Gingrich has been walking like a man who sees defeat lately and he’ll be even less likely than Perry to embarrass himself. If he doesn’t place second in South Carolina, he’s out…but he’s likely to place second so we’ll see.
Rick Santorum: 5-to-1. If he doesn’t place second in South Carolina, he could be forced out. As I said above, he, Perry, and Gingrich are waiting to see how South Carolina goes before seeing which one will drop out (hence why they’re clustered together in the odds). Whoever places third and fourth in that contest should drop out and let this race be a two-man (plus Paul) race until the end but that probably won’t happen. Santorum’s biggest problem is running out of money which would more likely force him out of the race than him actually choosing to quit.
Ron Paul: 20-to-1. I don’t see Paul quitting anytime soon. He doesn’t really care if he’s actually elected, so much as he does his “Ron Paul Revolution” and will want to stay in at least as long as some of the Western states (where he sees himself winning) vote. He’s not waiting to see if South Carolina is his, he knows it won’t be, and I don’t see that state playing any kind of role in how long he keeps up his futile quest.