In an article written a few days ago, I said March 15th would definitively tell us who would win the primaries. People scoffed, and I’m not one to say “I told you so” but Alabama Liberal’s election predictions are usually better than the ones people are paying big money to get on other media outlets,…
Tag: Rubio
Rubio’s Campaign: An Autopsy
Surprising exactly no one, Marco Rubio lost his home state of Florida. And you have to wonder if even Rubio was surprised at his loss, despite “Little Marco” being hellbent to turn Miami into his Little Big Horn. Only a few days before he was desperately reaching out to Governor Kasich’s Florida supporters (all three…
We’ll Know Who the Nominees are After March 15th
In the last A Year Long Conversation podcast, “Episode 12: Why March 15th is the Most Important Day of the Election” we both let it be known that March 15th is the most important day of the election. Now I’d like to go a step beyond that and say definitively that we’ll know who the…
What’s Behind Trump’s “Midwestern Problem?”
Donald Trump has a uniquely Midwestern problem. If you closely look at the only states he hasn’t won, four out of five of them are Midwestern states. And I strongly suspect Ted Cruz won Alaska by tricking its residents into voting for a “Free Cruz” out of the state. So if you write-off Alaska as an outpost…
GOP Supporting Ted Cruz? Really? Are They Trying to Lose to Trump?
Of all the strange stories that came out of Super-Tuesday, one of the weirdest may be that the GOP seems to be planning to dump Rubio at the exact moment he could actually win some states. I keep seeing different variations of people “questioning” Rubio’s chances. [Uhhhh, you think?] And speculating that maybe they should…
Why Are Republicans Acting Like They Didn’t Write the Southern Strategy?
“Donald Trump is a racist!” “Donald Trump is getting support from the Ku Klux Klan!” “Donald Trump is drawing white supremacists becaue of his racially divisive rhetoric!” And that’s just what the Republicans are saying about him. The exact question of how racist Donald Trump is may be the best one of the campaign season….
Super Tuesday Predictions For Each State…
How will each candidate do on Super-Tuesday? Let’s take a look… Democrats Hillary Clinton…Will Win: Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Virginia, and the big prize of Texas. Will Probably Win: Oklahoma. Decent Odds: Massachuttes, Colorado. Could Go Either Way: Minnesota. Will Lose: Vermont Bernie Sanders…Will Win: Vermont. Might Win: Minnesota. Could Win: Massachuttes, Colorado, Oklahoma. Will Lose Everything Else Republicans…They have all the states Democrats do plus Alaska and Wyoming Donald Trump…Will…
Does Chris Christie Endorsement Really Matter? It Just Might…
By now, Rubio has collected more political endorsements than The Godfather who carried around politicians “like so many nickels and dimes in your pocket.” He’s had damn-near every big name Republican politician of past (Romney) present (Nikki Haley) and waaay past (Bob Dole). So people might look at Christie’s endorsement and think “who cares? Rubio…
Episode 10–What Type of Strategies and Fans Does Each Candidate Have? Exploring GOP Identity Politics
A very special tenth episode of “A Year Long Conversation” that is a little longer than usual but moves like a bullet-train. We dive deep into: How each candidate’s strategy is shaped by who they are (Ted Cruz’s shady minions, Rubio’s half-hearted endorsements, Trump’s unimaginative strategy of actually winning states). We explore the media’s dead-wrong assertion that…
It’s Trump’s World and the Rest of the GOP is Just Living In It
“Now is the time to get behind Rubio as the anti-Trump!” Too late. “Can Ted Cruz pull an upset?” No. “Maybe John Kasich could pull a rabbit out of his hat–” No, he can’t. Unless Donald Trump actually shoots somebody, he’s going to be the Republican nominee. And even then, his poll numbers will probably…
Just Where Does John Kasich Actually Plan to Compete?
I keep seeing recent stories that the GOP is strongly trying to push John Kasich off a cliff–I mean, give him a nudge to drop out of the race. They keep saying “It’s Rubio’s world and you’re just living it.” Now I disspelled that notion yesterday as I don’t think most Kasich voters are necessarily…
It’s Not Kasich or Bush That’s Holding Rubio Back, It’s TED CRUZ
The biggest problem in forecasting races is that political pundits think voters are paying attention to the same things they are. They assume an electorate is more focused on individual issues or any real issues than individual (physical) traits or personalities. They leave out the “science” that voters gravitate towards candidates that remind them of themselves, regardless…
Why Bernie Can’t Beat ANY of the Five GOP Potential Nominees
I know, I know, Bernie’s fans won’t believe a word I say about him or his electability chances, but I’m hoping against hope that I can convince at least some people before it’s too late. Realistically, there are five GOP candidates who could be the nominee (sorry Ben Carson). When you really start to crunch…